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2023
The earliest Ethiopian wolf: implications for thespecies evolution and its future survival.
Humanities
In 2017, a hemimandible (MW5-B208), corresponding to the Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis),was found in a stratigraphically-controlled and radio-isotopically-dated sequence of theMelka Wakena paleoanthropological site-complex, on the Southeastern Ethiopian Highlands,~ 2300m above sea level. The specimen is the first and unique Pleistocene fossil of this species. Our data provide an unambiguous minimum age of 1.6–1.4 Ma for the species’presence in Africa and constitutes the first empirical evidence that supports molecularinterpretations. Currently, C. simensis is one of the most endangered carnivore species ofAfrica. Bioclimate niche modeling applied to the time frame indicated by the fossil suggeststhat the lineage of the Ethiopian wolf faced severe survival challenges in the past, withconsecutive drastic geographic range contractions during warmer periods. These models helpto describe future scenarios for the survival of the species. Projections ranging from mostpessimistic to most optimistic future climatic scenarios indicate significant reduction of thealready-deteriorating territories suitable for the Ethiopian Wolf, increasing the threat to thespecie’s future survival. Additionally, the recovery of the Melka Wakena fossil underscoresthe importance of work outside the East African Rift System in research of early humanorigins and associated biodiversity on the African continent.
Geographic location of Melka Wakena (a, b); stratigraphy of the MW5-West sequence (c); and the stratigraphic position of MW5-B208 in relation to the dated archaeological sequence at locality MW5 (d).
Extant Ethiopian wolf and the fossil from Melka Wakena. Top: Extant Canis simensis from the Sanetti Plateau, Ethiopia (photo: C. J. Sharp; distributed under CC BY-SA 4.0, modified by S. Bartolini-Lucenti, under the same license: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/). Bottom: the sSilhouette of C. simensis and the photographs and 3D model of the right mandible MW5-B208 in buccal (a), lingual (b), occlusal (c), and detailed occlusal view of the p4-m2 (d).
(a) Reconstructed Annual Mean Temperature (BIO 1) averaged for the whole Ethiopia territory during the last 2 Ma, based on Raia et al.37, the present and future forecasts in 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 (based on the model BCC-CSM2-MR with ssp: 370, see Supp. Inf. for further information). Before averaging temperature values, present and future temperature raster were upscaled to a resolution of 50 x 50 km, as for the ¬past bioclimatic rasters. Blue dots indicate the temperature values for the present, for 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100. (see Supp. Inf. for other future models and scenarios). The Last Interglacial (LIG) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are also indicated by the dashed-gray vertical lines at 123 and 22 ka; (b – e) maps of the reconstructed Ethiopian wolf’s Habitat Suitability Index in Ethiopia for 1657 Ka (b), 1437 Ka (c), 123 ka (LIG, d) and for 22 ka (LGM, e); and ( f – j) Habitat Suitability Index map of the present (f) and forecasted maps for the 2040 (g), 2060 (h), 2080 (i) and 2100 (j) according to the CMIP6 model BCC-CSM2-MR with the shared socio-economic pathway 370 (see Material and Methods for further information about CMIP6 models).
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