Emerging health threats from climate change in Europe

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a significant driver of health threats in Europe, particularly through the expansion of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Developing robust indicators to monitor and predict these risks is essential for effective public health responses. The 2024 Lancet Countdown in Europe report underscores the urgency of addressing health impacts linked to climate change. Among its 42 indicators, the report introduced a new metric focusing on leishmaniasis, a disease transmitted by Leishmania infantum through sandfly vectors. Historically confined to specific regions, leishmaniasis is now spreading northward and into higher altitudes, correlating with rising temperatures and changing environmental conditions (van Daalen et al. 2024). The climatic suitability indicator model developed to support surveillance of L. infantum in Europe integrates historical records of sandfly vectors, human leishmaniasis cases, and environmental variables into a machine learning framework. The model predicted an increase in climatically suitable regions, particularly in southern and eastern Europe, with a notable expansion toward central Europe. These predictions align with observed human leishmaniasis incidence and canine seroprevalence, demonstrating the indicator's potential to guide targeted surveillance and intervention efforts (Carvalho et al., 2024). The inclusion of leishmaniasis as an indicator in the Lancet Countdown in Europe and the European Climate and Health Observatory reflects a broader concern about the proliferation of vector-borne diseases in Europe due to climate change. The report also highlights increased climatic suitability for other pathogens and vectors, including Vibrio bacteria, West Nile virus, dengue, chikungunya, Zika, malaria, and tick-borne diseases (Wong, 2024). This expansion underscores the need for comprehensive monitoring systems to inform public health protection strategies.